Deautomation
tl:dr; Automation is not a guarantee, but it is a brutal process. We should expect cycles of deautomation as well, but can't expect the jobs that return to be good ones. Especially as techies, there are some things we can do to stop pummeling the poor.
Automation
Factory automation is an obvious win for the owners. It's an investment. Improve the factory with a large cash outlay, and you can decrease head count.
But the ambitions of household automation have historically been sold through the idea of leisure and convenience.
However, one (perhaps indirect result) of that work becoming easier is that women joined the workforce, and dual incomes became increasingly standard and necessary. The awesome thing was women being seen as qualified and important, but the not awesome thing is that these type of advancements have been stagnant in some ways since the 70's (the wage gap). For many households, housework still falls to women (and washing clothes might be easier, but homework help and kids' activities have probably more than filled the void) and they make less money at work.
Two less obvious not awesome things are:
- The massive transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich in the last 30-50 years. (Though this is more obvious than it has been thanks to persistent messaging by activists and progressive politicians).
- The role of women has been improved in many ways, but the automation did not lead to leisure. It led to more work.
Equal rights to earn money, vote, get married, and be in the military are obviously important as hell, but the underlying benefits are not exclusively to women or people of color or the LGBT community. This article does a way better job explaining this than I can.
That article (as well as the election season) should have made it clear that there are two democratic parties, a "progressive" wing and a "traditional" wing, which some including me, would also label as the "corporatist" wing. If we're headed towards increased automation (which I believe we are generally), the latter offers much less of a security net to those most affected by corporatism from whatever direction.
Here are some of the perspectives from the others who benefit:
A more diverse workforce makes better decisions. A more diverse workforce makes better products. We are missing a huge market by not selling x/y/z to women. We are missing a huge market by not jailing women at the same rate as men. Equality of production. Equality of consumption. Why shouldn't people of color (as long as they're proper capitalists) also enjoy the good life screwing over the poor? - me as a fatcat
Automation might have started as a decent offering to a lot of people: an easier life. But that's not what happened.
It's obvious now that automation mostly means losing jobs and more pressure and competition for the ones that stick around, not a mutually shared enjoyment of leisure, family time, or avocations.
Because the industrial and tech revolutions have given us so much automated power, it's hard to see anything other than a future where this trend continues. Without any optimism from the past failed promises of leisure, we're left with an increasingly competitive ambition to rise to the middle. In short, under increasing automation, the future looks bleak.
Deautomation
We can't make the assumption that automation only moves in one direction. Jobs on the very high end of the spectrum are pure delegation, putting money here, hiring/firing, and while any number of these functions themselves can be automated and will be if possible (Yes, "job creators" are a myth), the delegation job of execs, politicians, and other bureaucrats themselves are safe, although likely more competitive than ever.
There are plenty of jobs across the rest of the spectrum (and especially the gig economy) that will be automated whenever possible.
We have Portlandia-style "artisinal" everything. We have the underground economy. We have a lot of interactions where we appreciate a human touch, from hair stylists to call-centers. These jobs are all incredibly vulnerable, even if they have a moment here and there.
One interesting and rarely discussed effect of automation is that it doesn't just increase profits by cutting jobs. It actually lowers the cost of human labor. It goes like this:
- Machines become cheap enough to take some jobs
- A new standard is set for expected productivity in a company
- Something happens to make the machinery less viable (consumer expectations, PR, new products, new markets)
- The company searches for human labor as cheap as the machines they've been dealing with
- GOTO 1
Back to call centers, we have seen some of this deautomation in action. First, as much as possible was put into recordings and menus. When consumers were frustrated by the process (and at a micro-level this still happens, just hit 0, say operator, or swear at it till you get a human), they tried offshoring. For some people, that's also very frustrating (especially for those angered just by hearing an accent). So next, we've got prison labor to the rescue. A very cheap option and thus an exploitative option, but consumers are relieved that at least they "speak American."
But maybe Siri and Echo sufficiently train people to enjoy their interactions with bots. GOTO 1.
Using cheap labor, whether it is mechanical or human, is nothing new. The Jungle (free on Project Gutenberg) does an awesome job of showing how violent this process is, even without involving the degree of automation and wealth inequality we see today.
In any case, we shouldn't see automation as strictly a one way street. However, deautomation is mostly responsive to the same desire for a decline in expenses, so we can't expect higher wages there.
As a Techie
If you're working in the tech industry, I'd like to ask three things of you with regard to automation. But as a baseline, understanding inclusion 101 in tech on a person to person level is a decent start.
Ok. 3 things:
Choose who you help
It's easy to think a job is a job, but there is a huge difference between helping sell ads and helping shut down schools. Please vote with your feet and your voice if you think you're helping the wrong people and have the ability to work elsewhere.
Humanize your automated work
If you automate work, consider the possibility that at some point, it will be deautomated. Would you personally want to take over the mechanical process that you've codified in your software? Would you want it executed by others? What if it became policy, or law?
Support progressive politics
Please don't ignore your impact on the world. If you're automating jobs (and there's a good chance of that), please think of what you can do to help those who won't have work because of yours. Universal Basic Income, the right to healthcare and education, a living wage, a progressive tax and legal system. Maybe this starts with getting money out of politics. I'm not sure, but I'm definitely paying attention.
But I know we have to fight for the poor and for people from various backgrounds and identities. Not just for our own benefits of "canary in the coalmine" economic disaster warnings that hit the poor before "main street" or the wisdom that "having diverse teams" will help us to sell better. Not just an opportunity for all Americans to be more competitive in the rat race and have less leisure. There will still be plenty of ladder climbing opportunities even if the bottom 4 rungs aren't kicked out. The right has made this an all-or-nothing game, and supporting a corporate left just doesn't work. Even if they were kind in their policies, they've stopped winning. It's not just the presidency. They're getting destroyed at state and local levels too.
Anyways, if you're in a tech job that you think is bad for the world, talk to me. I can't be certain to help you get out, but I can answer questions about the stresses and uncertainties of being independent, negotiations, getting clients, etc.